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Senate
Senate: who controls it?
Tap a race to pick a winner, or try a scenario.
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Majority
60 filibuster-proof and 67 two-thirds, counted from each side
Forecast medians for Democrats
What do these mean?
- Who needs what
- The Senate has 100 seats. Democrats need 51 for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties.
- Seats on the ballot
- 35 seats are up this year, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. The other 65 senators aren't up until 2028 or 2030 and are counted as they stand.
- Ratings (Solid, Likely, Lean, Toss Up)
- From the Cook Political Report. Solid: not expected to be competitive. Likely: not competitive now, but could become so. Lean: competitive, with one party ahead. Toss Up: either party has a good chance. The bars on each rating count its strength: three for Solid, two for Likely, one for Lean.
- Poll projection
- Poliwave's estimate of the final margin from the polls, in points. A positive number means the Democrat or independent leads; a negative number means the Republican leads.
- Odds
- Decision Desk HQ's model: the chance that the favored candidate wins. 60% means the other candidate still wins about 4 times in 10.
- Called
- A race is marked called only after a decision desk such as the AP or Decision Desk HQ calls it. Results stay unofficial until states certify them.
- Polling miss slider
- Shifts every uncalled race by the same number of points, to show how a nationwide polling error in either direction would change control.
- 60 and 67
- 60 votes are needed to end a filibuster. 67, two-thirds, are needed to override a veto (with the House), convict in an impeachment trial or ratify a treaty.
What if…
Dems & Inds beat pollsGOP beats polls
Polls are exactly right
Moves every race not yet called by the same amount, then gives each to whoever leads the poll projection.
Osborn (NE), Bodnar (MT), Achilles (ID) and Bengs (SD) run as independents and haven't committed to a caucus.
The races
House: who controls it?
All 435 seats are on the ballot. 218 wins the majority.
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218 majority
290 two-thirds, counted from each side
Forecast medians for Democrats
What do these mean?
- Who needs what
- All 435 House seats are on the ballot every two years. 218 is a majority for either party.
- Where the ratings stand
- Cook Political Report's ratings for every district. Seats rated Solid, Likely or Lean are counted for that party; the rest are toss-ups.
- Sliders
- Hand out the toss-ups, then add upsets: seats one party is favored in that the other party wins anyway. Every wave election has some.
- 290
- Two-thirds of the House, the number needed to override a veto or pass a constitutional amendment.
What if…
018
Unassigned
0
0
Where the ratings stand
Governors
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What do these mean?
- Who's up
- 36 of the 50 governorships are on the ballot this year. Governors serve four-year terms, except in New Hampshire and Vermont, where the term is two years. The 14 governors not on the ballot are counted as they stand.
- Why governors matter
- A governor signs or vetoes the state's laws and budget, appoints officials and judges in many states, and in many states can veto new congressional and legislative district maps.
- Ratings (Solid, Likely, Lean, Toss Up)
- Solid: not expected to be competitive. Likely: not competitive now, but could become so. Lean: competitive, with one party ahead. Toss Up: either party has a good chance. The source is named under the list.
- Open seat
- The current governor isn't running, often because of term limits.
- Called
- A race is marked called only after a decision desk such as the AP or Decision Desk HQ calls it. Results stay unofficial until states certify them.
The races
Ballot measures
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What do these mean?
- Which measures are here
- Every statewide measure put on the ballot by citizens' petitions, and the amendments legislatures sent to voters on major issues: abortion, voting and elections, taxes, marriage, guns, drugs, wages, schools, criminal justice and immigration. Routine technical changes are left out; the full list is linked below.
- Constitutional amendment or statute
- An amendment changes the state constitution, so changing it again takes another vote of the people. A statute is an ordinary state law, which the legislature can usually amend later; the rules differ by state.
- Who put it on the ballot
- Citizen initiative: voters gathered enough signatures. Legislature: lawmakers voted to send it to voters. A veto referendum asks voters whether to keep a law the legislature passed.
- Yes
- The line under each measure says what a Yes vote does. A No vote keeps the law as it is now.
- Votes needed
- Most measures pass with a simple majority. Where a state requires more, it's shown on the measure (Florida amendments need 60%, for example).
- Passed or failed
- Shown only after the AP, Decision Desk HQ or the state's own results show the outcome is decided. Until then a measure shows the count so far.
The measures
What the forecasts say
Each model and market's chance that each party controls the chamber. They use different methods, so read them side by side rather than as one number.
What do these mean?
- Model
- A statistical forecast built from polls and other data, such as past results and fundraising. It runs the election thousands of times and reports how often each party wins control.
- Market
- Prices on a prediction market (Kalshi), where traders bet money on the outcome. A price of 72 cents means traders put the chance at about 72%. It isn't a poll or a model.
- Median seats
- The middle outcome across a model's simulations: half its runs come out above this number, half below.
- Reading a percentage
- A 70% chance isn't a forecast of a landslide. It means the other side wins about 3 times in 10, which happens often.
- Average of models
- A plain average of the models listed. Markets are left out of it.
What the ratings say
Early vote
Ballots already cast by mail or in person before Election Day. Updated every hour until 5 PM ET on Election Day.
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What do these mean?
- Early vote
- Any ballot cast before Election Day: a mail ballot that's been returned, or a vote cast in person at an early-voting site. These are ballots, not results. States don't release counts of who got the votes until polls close.
- Mail vs in person
- Some states vote almost entirely by mail (Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah). Others mostly vote early in person (Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee). It mostly reflects each state's rules, not enthusiasm.
- Share of 2022 vote
- Early ballots so far divided by every ballot counted in that state's 2022 midterm, Election Day included. 50% means the state already has half as many ballots as its whole 2022 election.
- Pace vs 2022
- Compared with early ballots cast by the same point before the 2022 election. +20% means 20% more early ballots than at this point in 2022. A faster early vote can mean higher turnout, or just that more people chose to vote early.
- Party registration
- In states where voters register by party, the share of early voters registered as Democrats or Republicans. The rest are unaffiliated or other parties. It shows who voted, not how they voted.
- Why the trackers' totals differ
- States and counties post updates at different times, and trackers differ on whether they count ballots received or ballots accepted. We show where they disagree, and the date on each state's count.
- ~
- The source rounds this count, for example ~86K.
- No data
- A gray state has no count from the trackers we use. Alabama and New Hampshire have no early in-person voting.
Map
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